Introduction

Donald Trump's leadership has historically brought significant shifts in U.S. cyber policy. His first term emphasized offensive capabilities and operational flexibility, contrasting the cooperative and defensive approaches of previous administrations. As Trump prepares for a potential second term, the focus is expected to intensify on using cyber tools for deterrence and power projection.

This article evaluates the operational changes during Trump’s first term, anticipated future policies, and the associated risks and challenges in reshaping global cyber norms.

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Operational Changes Under Trump’s First Term

1. Persistent Engagement Doctrine

Under Trump, USCYBERCOM embraced the doctrine of “persistent engagement,” prioritizing proactive disruption of adversary activities. Key milestones include:

2018 DoD Cyber Strategy: Operationalized the shift towards preemptive actions.

NSPM-13: Allowed USCYBERCOM greater operational autonomy without requiring direct presidential approval.

Midterm Elections (2018): Disruption of Russian cyber interference highlighted the doctrine’s effectiveness.

2. Expanded Offensive Operations

USCYBERCOM actively targeted adversarial networks, such as malware deployment against Russia’s infrastructure, signaling U.S. deterrence

capabilities.

Future Outlook: Trump’s Second Term Agenda

1. Creation of a U.S. Cyber Force

Trump's vision for a dedicated Cyber Force reflects his prioritization of cyber operations. Legislative and structural debates may shape its feasibility in his second term.

2. Strategic Realignment with China

A firmer stance against China’s cyber activities, such as Volt Typhoon, will likely replace prior diplomatic engagement with proactive deterrence measures.

3. Enhanced Operational Scope

USCYBERCOM is expected to escalate its activities, expanding the Cyber National Mission Force's reach to counter adversarial cyber threatsg lobally.

Risks and Challenges

1. Escalation Risks

Proactive engagement can be misinterpreted, escalating adversary responses and destabilizing international norms.

2. Governance and Oversight

Centralizing operations under the Pentagon could sideline diplomatic efforts, reducing the focus on cooperative solutions.

3. Dual-Hat Leadership Challenges

The shared leadership of USCYBERCOM and the NSA may face further scrutiny, impacting intelligence sharing and operational effectiveness.

Implications for Adversaries

China: Heightened deterrence could provoke more aggressive cyber campaigns targeting U.S. allies.

Russia: Offensive operations may deter interference but risk tit-for-tat escalation.

Iran and North Korea: Increased U.S. offensive actions could embolden asymmetric cyber strategies.

Conclusion

The Trump administration's anticipated return heralds a decisive shift in U.S. cyber strategy, emphasizing offensive operations and institutional reforms. While these measures aim to strengthen U.S. dominance in cyberspace, they risk destabilizing global cyber stability and eroding international norms.

As policymakers navigate these challenges, balancing strategic goals with global stability will be imperative to avoid long-term repercussions.

Recommendations for Policymakers

1. Strengthen Oversight: Enhance interagency mechanisms to reduce escalation risks.

2. Clarify Deterrence Goals: Define clear operational thresholds to guide cyber engagements.

3. Promote Global Cyber Norms: Collaborate with allies to reinforce international frameworks.

4. Assess Cyber Force Feasibility: Ensure structural reforms align with strategic objectives.