NOAA Warns of Above-Normal Activity in 2025 Hurricane Season

NOAA updates its 2025 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, predicting above-normal activity with up to 18 named storms. Experts urge coastal residents to prepare now.

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is entering its most dangerous stretch, and conditions are aligning for a sharp increase in tropical storm and hurricane activity. With four named storms already behind us — including Tropical Storm Chantal, which battered the Carolinas in early July — forecasters are warning that the weeks ahead could bring several more powerful systems.

Meteorologists from both AccuWeather and NOAA’s National Weather Service say a potent combination of factors, including warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures, an active West African monsoon, and neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions, are priming the basin for an active second half of the season. The latest NOAA update calls for 13–18 named storms, 5–9 hurricanes, and 2–5 major hurricanes before the season officially ends on November 30.

While no hurricanes have formed yet this year, the peak season — mid-August through late September — is historically when the most dangerous storms emerge. The advice from experts is clear: prepare now, not when a warning is issued.

NOAA’s Updated Outlook: A Season Poised to Ramp Up

On August 7, 2025, NOAA issued its midseason update for the Atlantic hurricane season, maintaining its above-normal forecast from May. According to Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm, the probability of above-normal activity remains at 50%, with only a 15% chance of below-normal activity.

The updated projection includes the four named storms already observed:

·        Tropical Storm Alberto (early June) – remained at sea, bringing rough surf to the Southeast U.S. coast.

·        Tropical Storm Beryl (late June) – produced heavy rainfall in parts of the Caribbean.

·        Tropical Storm Chantal (July 3–6) – made U.S. landfall in the Carolinas, causing deadly flash floods.

·        Tropical Storm Dexter (late July) – dissipated offshore after forming from a stalled front near the Carolinas.

While these storms were relatively weak compared to past hurricanes, experts caution against complacency. Ken Graham, Director of the National Weather Service, emphasized:

“Every storm is unique, and every storm carries hazards. It only takes one to make it a bad season for your community.”

The NOAA forecast anticipates that August and September will be particularly active, with one or two major hurricanes possible before October.

Current Systems and Emerging Threats in the Atlantic

As of early August, meteorologists are monitoring several developing systems across the Atlantic basin.

1. Stalled Front off the Carolina Coast

The same stalled front that helped spawn Tropical Storm Dexter continues to linger offshore. While it is likely to stay at sea, the system could still strengthen into a tropical depression or storm. If it does, it will be named Erin — the next in the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season list. Coastal residents from South Carolina to Virginia should brace for rough surf, rip currents, and localized flooding.

2. Cabo Verde Season Kicking Off

Farther east, the “Cabo Verde season” is in full swing. This period, named for the islands off the coast of Africa, typically produces long-track hurricanes that can cross the Atlantic and impact the Caribbean or North America.

Two tropical waves have recently emerged from the African coastline:

·        First Wave: Expected to turn north into open waters, avoiding the Caribbean but likely causing dangerous surf along the U.S. East Coast and near Bermuda.

·        Second Wave: Of greater concern, this system has a favorable track and environmental setup for development between August 13–15. It could move toward the Caribbean, Central America, or the southeastern United States by late August.

AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva warns that this second wave could become the first hurricane of the 2025 season if conditions hold.

Why the 2025 Season Could Be More Intense Than Last Year

While the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season was relatively quiet during August, this year is shaping up differently. Several factors are contributing to the heightened forecast:

·        Warmer-than-Average Sea Surface Temperatures: The tropical Atlantic and Caribbean are experiencing record warmth, providing abundant fuel for storm development.

·        Active West African Monsoon: This weather pattern generates strong tropical waves that serve as the seeds for Atlantic hurricanes.

·        ENSO-Neutral Conditions: Without the suppressing effects of El Niño or the intensifying effects of La Niña, other atmospheric factors dominate, creating a favorable environment for storm formation.

Matt Rosencrans, NOAA’s lead hurricane forecaster, summarized:

“Many of the factors we identified ahead of the season are still at play, and conditions are tracking closely with our May predictions.”

Understanding the Historical Peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season

While the Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30, it has a clear peak from mid-August to late September. According to climatological data, this period produces the majority of hurricanes, including the most destructive ones.

Why Peak Season Matters

·        Warmer Oceans: Sea surface temperatures are highest during this period, providing more energy for storms.

·        Lower Wind Shear: Atmospheric conditions often become less hostile, allowing storms to organize and strengthen.

·        Strong Tropical Waves: The West African monsoon is most active, sending waves into the Atlantic that can develop into hurricanes.

For coastal residents, this means heightened vigilance is necessary over the next six to eight weeks. Preparedness steps taken now could make the difference between safety and disaster later.

How to Prepare for the Height of Hurricane Season

With NOAA and AccuWeather both urging readiness, here are key steps to take before a storm threatens:

Essential Hurricane Preparedness Checklist

·        Assemble an emergency supply kit with food, water, medications, and essential documents.

·        Review your evacuation plan and know local shelter locations.

·        Secure your property by trimming trees, reinforcing windows, and clearing gutters.

·        Keep communication devices charged and have backup power sources.

·        Stay informed through trusted sources like the National Hurricane Center and local emergency management.

Preparedness is not just for those living directly on the coast. Inland communities can face flooding, power outages, and tornadoes associated with tropical systems.

Looking Ahead: Names and Numbers Still in Play

As of August 2025, the following storm names remain on the Atlantic hurricane season list: Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Imelda, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van, Wendy.

NOAA’s projection of up to 18 named storms means many of these names could be used before the season ends. The chance for multiple landfalling storms is high given current oceanic and atmospheric patterns.

The Bottom Line

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is heating up exactly as forecasters predicted. With multiple systems on the radar, an updated NOAA forecast confirming above-normal activity, and the historical peak just beginning, the message is consistent: now is the time to prepare.

Residents along the Gulf Coast, Eastern Seaboard, and in the Caribbean should stay informed and ready to act if a storm threatens. While forecasting technology has improved, the unpredictability of tropical systems means even areas not in the current cone of uncertainty could face impacts.