The Speaker of the House is one of the most important elected officials in the United States, being second in the line of succession to the president. While Mike Johnson recently joked with Fox News that he might return to his hometown of Shreveport, Louisiana, to start a lawn care business if Republicans lose power on November 3, he fully expects to defy the common midterm tradition where the president's party often loses seats in Congress.
The question is... Is it even probable or wishful thinking? The midterms are less than twelve days away, and early voting in several states has already started. Early polls show Democrats ahead or tied in 7-9 battleground states that were once Republican strongholds politically and a stronghold for Republican incumbents... not so now. Those have become competitive just within the last four to six months. Johnson must weigh options and relationships, especially with Trump. Traditionally, the party who loses power in elections is "strongly encouraged" to give up the speakership in favor of the new majority party, and his/her position is reduced to minority whip, powerful politically but less so, with it, less authority and, i.e., influence.
Johnson, who has closely aligned himself with former President Donald Trump—sometimes receiving calls as late as 1 a.m.—is maintaining a positive outlook. This optimism persists despite the challenges of leading one of the smallest House majorities in modern history and widespread voter dissatisfaction over high prices and the ongoing war in Iran. Throughout his three years as speaker, Johnson has kept his narrow GOP majority united to push Trump's agenda. Notably, he led the passage of significant tax cuts and reductions in social services, often counting on every available vote.
Republican Rep. Mark Harris of North Carolina noted, "So many times, everyone had written him off, believing there was no way he could secure certain votes. Yet he always seems to pull out a win in the end."
In recent interviews, Johnson did not boast about the possibility of expanding the House majority on Election Day, as he has in the past. However, he mentioned that he is on track to visit over 20 states and 40 congressional districts through November, observing that the political climate reminds him of the 2024 election, which swept Republicans into control of both Congress and the White House. He remarked, "It's not going to be a huge majority, but I genuinely believe we will have a working majority."
Johnson's confidence is bolstered by Trump’s influence. He was thrust into the speaker role almost by accident when his GOP colleagues desperately needed a leader after a faction of renegade Republicans ousted his predecessor, Rep. Kevin McCarthy of California, in 2023. Before the January 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol, Johnson distinguished himself by organizing support for Trump’s unfounded claims of widespread election fraud in the 2020 election, which Trump lost to Democrat Joe Biden. Since then, he has gained significant proximity to Trump's power, even attending a UFC fight in New York with him and presenting Trump with a speaker's gavel when he signed the "One Big Beautiful Bill" into law—a symbolic gesture that critics viewed as undermining the authority of a coequal branch of government
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